San Jose Earthquakes 3-2 FC Dallas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
37%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.5
No
45%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.61
2-3 Goals
37%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.87
6+ Goals
14%
8.14
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.56
1/2
8%
24.85
1/X
6%
12.5
X/1
12%
5.88
X/2
16%
5.75
X/X
13%
5.38
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
14%
3.44
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.5pp
37%
Away Win
37%
+0.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
62%
-7.1pp
45%
BTTS No
38%
+7.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME San Jose Earthquakes EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Dallas EU Bookmakers 40%
-9% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
1.41/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.42
-17% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
373 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 79%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
19.5 Crosses 15.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
0W-4D-2L
AWAY FC Dallas
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.07 xG 1.16
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
393 Passes 404
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
22 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 FC Dallas FC Dallas 2-1 HT 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
08.10.2023 FC Dallas FC Dallas 1-1 HT 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
28.05.2023 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
18.09.2022 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
14.08.2022 FC Dallas FC Dallas 4-1 HT 3-0 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes ABD
08.11.2021 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 HT 1-1 FC Dallas FC Dallas ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME San Jose Earthquakes
3-2
AWAY FC Dallas
2.05 xG 1.39
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
270 Passes 448
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
16 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

San Jose Earthquakes nicked a narrow win over FC Dallas 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 25% / 37% — and on the day San Jose Earthquakes made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, San Jose Earthquakes had 40% of the ball to FC Dallas's 60%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 2.05 to 1.39.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Dallas led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.67 for FC Dallas.

What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas?

San Jose Earthquakes 3-2 FC Dallas in the USA - Major League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas?

Before kick-off our model rated a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split San Jose Earthquakes 38%, draw 25%, FC Dallas 37%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (San Jose Earthquakes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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