Athletic Bilbao vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Athletic Bilbao v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals
Athletic Bilbao vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-1
AZ Alkmaar
AVL
2-1
HT 0-0
Athletic Bilbao
AVL
Athletic Bilbao 2-0 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics
Athletic Bilbao beat AZ Alkmaar 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 55% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 45%, shots finished 17-5, expected goals 1.42 to 0.37.
Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Athletic Bilbao and 2.00 for AZ Alkmaar.
What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs AZ Alkmaar?
Athletic Bilbao 2-0 AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs AZ Alkmaar?
Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 48%, draw 25%, AZ Alkmaar 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.