Lazio 4-1 Nice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 3 Oct 2024

Lazio
4-1 HT 2-1
Nice
📅03/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
31%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
1.78
Over Pick
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.04
2-3
44%
1.78
4-5
22%
3.85
6+
10%
16.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.73
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.6
X/1
17%
4.39
X/2
9%
7.32
X/X
9%
4.45
2/1
11%
26.0
2/2
15%
5.61
2/X
6%
14.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.0 — our 11% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.6pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.9pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+5.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.6pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lazio EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Nice EU Bookmakers 29%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
1.93/1.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/1.81
+31% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -33%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
409 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
31.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.3
19.2 Crosses 7.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lazio
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Nice
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.34 xG 0.57
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 2
388 Passes 675
84% Pass Accuracy 90%
19 Box Touches 8
18 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 0
02.11.2017 Lazio Lazio 1-0 HT 0-0 Nice Nice AVL
19.10.2017 Nice Nice 1-3 HT 1-1 Lazio Lazio AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lazio
4-1
AWAY Nice
1.96 xG 1.04
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
259 Passes 431
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
27 Box Touches 23
11 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lazio vs Nice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio swept aside Nice 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lazio as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Lazio had 40% of the ball to Nice's 60%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.96 to 1.04.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lazio had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Lazio and 0.50 for Nice.

What was the final score of Lazio vs Nice?

Lazio 4-1 Nice in the UEFA Europa League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lazio vs Nice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lazio win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lazio 45%, draw 24%, Nice 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lazio), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lazio) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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