Real Sociedad 1-2 Anderlecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.53
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
27%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.8
Over
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
31%
3.08
2-3
42%
1.78
4-5
18%
3.8
6+
9%
16.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1.96
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.05
X/1
18%
3.58
X/2
11%
11.55
X/X
11%
5.09
2/1
7%
24.85
2/2
9%
9.82
2/X
10%
18.1
Value flag · 2/X at 18.1 — our 10% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
61%
-16.3pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.5pp
27%
Away Win
16%
+10.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.0pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Anderlecht EU Bookmakers 20%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
3.55/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.20
-24% / +89% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +31%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
380 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 73%
43.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
32.7 Crosses 16.8
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Real Sociedad
1-2
AWAY Anderlecht
1.22 xG 0.86
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 6
464 Passes 354
87% Pass Accuracy 85%
45 Box Touches 30
37 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Real Sociedad vs Anderlecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Anderlecht nicked a narrow win over Real Sociedad 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Real Sociedad at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Real Sociedad had 57% of the ball to Anderlecht's 43%, shots finished 20-15, expected goals 1.22 to 0.86.

What was the final score of Real Sociedad vs Anderlecht?

Real Sociedad 1-2 Anderlecht in the UEFA Europa League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Real Sociedad vs Anderlecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Real Sociedad win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Real Sociedad 44%, draw 29%, Anderlecht 27%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Real Sociedad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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