Karabağ 1-2 Malmö FF — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
2.1
Over
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
29%
4.06
2-3
39%
1.85
4-5
19%
3.08
6+
13%
9.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.69
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
14%
4.7
X/2
12%
7.31
X/X
10%
5.17
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
11%
4.98
2/X
12%
13.3
Value flag · 2/X at 13.3 — our 12% vs market 4.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-4.8pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.9pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.1pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karabağ EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Malmö FF EU Bookmakers 32%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +54% / +54%
1.55/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/0.63
-19% / +89% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% /
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
401 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
39.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
22.1 Crosses 18.0
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karabağ
1-2
AWAY Malmö FF
0.94 xG 0.81
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
1 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
423 Passes 331
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
39 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Karabağ vs Malmö FF
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Malmö FF edged past Karabağ 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Karabağ at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Karabağ had 55% of the ball to Malmö FF's 45%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.94 to 0.81.

What was the final score of Karabağ vs Malmö FF?

Karabağ 1-2 Malmö FF in the UEFA Europa League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karabağ vs Malmö FF?

Before kick-off our model rated a Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Karabağ 42%, draw 29%, Malmö FF 29%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Karabağ), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Karabağ) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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