Hoffenheim 2-0 Dynamo Kiev — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.86
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
30%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under
47%
2.21
Over
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes Pick
54%
1.56
No
46%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1
24%
4.48
2-3
39%
1.9
4-5
25%
2.92
6+
12%
8.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.47
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.4
X/1
16%
4.52
X/2
10%
7.87
X/X
11%
5.61
2/1
8%
21.45
2/2
14%
5.33
2/X
7%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 8% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
50%
-2.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.0pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
60%
-6.3pp
46%
BTTS No
40%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Dynamo Kiev EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +29%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +125%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
420 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.7
Crosses 12.2
Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
2-0
AWAY Dynamo Kiev
1.49 xG 0.24
48% Ball Possession 52%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 7
421 Passes 449
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
25 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Dynamo Kiev
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim saw off Dynamo Kiev 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Hoffenheim as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 48% of the ball to Dynamo Kiev's 52%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.49 to 0.24.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Dynamo Kiev?

Hoffenheim 2-0 Dynamo Kiev in the UEFA Europa League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Dynamo Kiev?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 47%, draw 23%, Dynamo Kiev 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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