Olympiakos 3-0 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
2.0
Over
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No Pick
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
27%
3.82
2-3
40%
1.83
4-5
22%
3.21
6+
11%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.82 — our 27% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.9
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
5%
12.8
X/1
12%
4.86
X/2
12%
6.83
X/X
17%
4.94
2/1
8%
24.0
2/2
12%
4.66
2/X
5%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 51%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-2.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
31%
Away Win
29%
+2.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-3.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.9pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Olympiakos EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 33%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +19%
1.34/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.61
-52% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +92% / -34%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
295 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
20.0 Crosses 15.4
1.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Olympiakos
3-0
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.24 xG 1.59
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
285 Passes 375
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 10
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Olympiakos vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Olympiakos swept aside Sporting Braga 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Olympiakos as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Olympiakos had 45% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 55%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.24 to 1.59.

What was the final score of Olympiakos vs Sporting Braga?

Olympiakos 3-0 Sporting Braga in the UEFA Europa League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Olympiakos vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Olympiakos win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Olympiakos 42%, draw 27%, Sporting Braga 31%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Olympiakos), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Olympiakos) ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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