Slavia Prag 1-1 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
28%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
2.0
Over
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.63
No
54%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.82
2-3
39%
1.83
4-5
21%
3.21
6+
11%
11.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.82 — our 29% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.63
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
13.15
X/1
11%
4.55
X/2
9%
7.5
X/X
15%
5.04
2/1
6%
23.15
2/2
11%
5.29
2/X
8%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+1.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
57%
-11.2pp
54%
BTTS No
43%
+11.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Slavia Prag EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 30%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +8%
1.41/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.24
-11% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
356 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 77%
18.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
15.3 Crosses 11.3
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Slavia Prag
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Ajax
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
7 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 6
17.12.2008 Ajax Ajax 2-2 HT 1-2 Slavia Prag Slavia Prag AVL
29.08.2007 Slavia Prag Slavia Prag 2-1 HT 1-1 Ajax Ajax ŞMP
15.08.2007 Ajax Ajax 0-1 HT 0-0 Slavia Prag Slavia Prag ŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Slavia Prag
1-1
AWAY Ajax
1.11 xG 1.51
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
291 Passes 244
76% Pass Accuracy 73%
35 Box Touches 11
35 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Slavia Prag vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Slavia Prag and Ajax couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Slavia Prag at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Slavia Prag had 55% of the ball to Ajax's 45%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 1.11 to 1.51.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Slavia Prag had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Slavia Prag and 1.00 for Ajax.

What was the final score of Slavia Prag vs Ajax?

Slavia Prag 1-1 Ajax in the UEFA Europa League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Slavia Prag vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated a Slavia Prag win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Slavia Prag 45%, draw 28%, Ajax 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Slavia Prag), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Slavia Prag) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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