Elfsborg 1-0 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.69
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
40%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
51%
1.91
Over
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.73
No Pick
54%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
29%
3.52
2-3
41%
1.8
4-5
20%
3.4
6+
10%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.52 — our 29% vs market 23.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.31
1/2
5%
23.6
1/X
6%
14.4
X/1
13%
8.44
X/2
13%
4.22
X/X
12%
4.96
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.39
2/X
8%
13.8
Value flag · X/1 at 8.44 — our 13% vs market 8.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
24%
+10.3pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.1pp
40%
Away Win
52%
-11.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
54%
-8.2pp
54%
BTTS No
46%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Elfsborg EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma EU Bookmakers 56%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +3%
0.77/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.76/0.84
-37% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +29%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
273 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 412 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
Crosses 16.8
Yellow Cards 1.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Elfsborg
1-0
AWAY Roma
1.41 xG 1.79
25% Ball Possession 75%
6 Total Shots 23
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
206 Passes 787
74% Pass Accuracy 92%
15 Box Touches 45
8 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Elfsborg vs Roma
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elfsborg nicked a narrow win over Roma 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 26% / 40% — and on the day Elfsborg made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Elfsborg had 25% of the ball to Roma's 75%, shots finished 6-23, expected goals 1.41 to 1.79.

What was the final score of Elfsborg vs Roma?

Elfsborg 1-0 Roma in the UEFA Europa League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Elfsborg vs Roma?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Elfsborg 34%, draw 26%, Roma 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Roma) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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