PAOK 0-1 FCSB — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 3 Oct 2024

PAOK
0-1 HT 0-1
FCSB
📅03/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.61
Draw
26%
3.8
Away
28%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.1
Over Pick
52%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1
27%
4.08
2-3
35%
1.85
4-5
27%
3.07
6+
11%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.02
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.95
X/1
13%
3.95
X/2
14%
10.6
X/X
10%
5.69
2/1
7%
21.85
2/2
9%
7.88
2/X
7%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
58%
-12.0pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.8pp
28%
Away Win
19%
+9.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PAOK EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY FCSB EU Bookmakers 22%
-12% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +9%
1.33/1.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.35
-15% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +55%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
368 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 80%
35.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
32.8 Crosses 11.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PAOK
1W-1D-0L
AWAY FCSB
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
05.07.2023 FCSB FCSB 1-1 PAOK PAOK HAZ
09.07.2018 PAOK PAOK 2-1 HT 2-0 FCSB FCSB HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PAOK
0-1
AWAY FCSB
2.02 xG 0.72
65% Ball Possession 35%
28 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
13 Corners 1
485 Passes 255
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
43 Box Touches 12
39 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH PAOK vs FCSB
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FCSB squeezed past PAOK 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was PAOK at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, PAOK had 65% of the ball to FCSB's 35%, shots finished 28-6, expected goals 2.02 to 0.72 — the balance of chances actually favoured PAOK.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, PAOK had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for PAOK and 1.00 for FCSB.

What was the final score of PAOK vs FCSB?

PAOK 0-1 FCSB in the UEFA Europa League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PAOK vs FCSB?

Before kick-off our model rated a PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split PAOK 46%, draw 26%, FCSB 28%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ Over 2.5
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