Twente 1-1 Fenerbahçe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
38%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
53%
1.95
Over
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.57
2-3
41%
1.8
4-5
22%
3.37
6+
9%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.57 — our 28% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
4.3
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
10%
6.28
X/2
12%
5.04
X/X
12%
4.78
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
19%
3.16
2/X
7%
12.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
32%
+3.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-0.4pp
38%
Away Win
41%
-2.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Twente EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 45%
+33% / +33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +16%
1.67/0.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.16/0.73
+33% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / +70%
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
254 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 377 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.6
Crosses 10.6
Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Twente
1W-0D-3L
AWAY Fenerbahçe
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.00 xG 2.04
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
272 Passes 374
75% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
31.08.2023 Twente Twente 0-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe AVKL
24.08.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 5-1 HT 1-1 Twente Twente AVKL
02.12.2009 Twente Twente 0-1 HT 0-0 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe AVL
17.09.2009 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 1-2 HT 0-0 Twente Twente AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Twente
1-1
AWAY Fenerbahçe
1.86 xG 0.94
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
366 Passes 335
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Twente vs Fenerbahçe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Twente and Fenerbahçe couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Twente had 52% of the ball to Fenerbahçe's 48%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.86 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Twente and 2.00 for Fenerbahçe.

What was the final score of Twente vs Fenerbahçe?

Twente 1-1 Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Europa League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Twente vs Fenerbahçe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Twente 36%, draw 26%, Fenerbahçe 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Fenerbahçe), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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