Tranmere Rovers 1-0 Carlisle United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 4 Jan 2025

Tranmere Rovers
1-0 HT 1-0
Carlisle United
📅04/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Tranmere Rovers vs Carlisle United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.82
Over 2.5
49%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
2.99
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
22%
3.51
6+ Goals
9%
14.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 28% vs market 26.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.04
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.85
X/1
14%
4.7
X/2
12%
6.53
X/X
10%
4.68
2/1
9%
26.5
2/2
17%
4.81
2/X
7%
14.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.5pp
51%
Under 2.5
51%
-0.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
49%
+0.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.9pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Tranmere Rovers v Carlisle United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tranmere Rovers EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Carlisle United EU Bookmakers 33%
+1% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +19%
1.19/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.05
-12% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
246 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 73%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
23.3 Crosses 16.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Tranmere Rovers vs Carlisle United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tranmere Rovers
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Carlisle United
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.98 xG 1.41
53% Ball Possession 47%
7 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
303 Passes 230
67% Pass Accuracy 65%
15 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.08.2024 Carlisle United Carlisle United 1-2 HT 1-2 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
07.04.2023 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-0 HT 2-0 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2
05.11.2022 Carlisle United Carlisle United 2-1 HT 1-0 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers FAK
29.10.2022 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 0-2 HT 0-1 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
02.04.2022 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers 2-2 HT 1-0 Carlisle United Carlisle United İN2
16.10.2021 Carlisle United Carlisle United 0-1 HT 0-0 Tranmere Rovers Tranmere Rovers İN2

Tranmere Rovers 1-0 Carlisle United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tranmere Rovers
1-0
AWAY Carlisle United
0.87 xG 1.33
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 19
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
215 Passes 368
62% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Tranmere Rovers vs Carlisle United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tranmere Rovers squeezed past Carlisle United 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tranmere Rovers as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Tranmere Rovers had 42% of the ball to Carlisle United's 58%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 0.87 to 1.33 — the balance of chances actually favoured Carlisle United.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Carlisle United led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tranmere Rovers and 1.50 for Carlisle United.

What was the final score of Tranmere Rovers vs Carlisle United?

Tranmere Rovers 1-0 Carlisle United in the England - 2nd Division on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tranmere Rovers vs Carlisle United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tranmere Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tranmere Rovers 42%, draw 24%, Carlisle United 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tranmere Rovers), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tranmere Rovers) ✓ Under 2.5
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