Notts County 2-0 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 4 Jan 2025

Notts County
2-0 HT 2-0
Swindon Town
📅04/01/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Notts County vs Swindon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.27
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
2.77
6+ Goals
12%
7.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.23
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.1
X/1
16%
4.29
X/2
7%
9.28
X/X
10%
5.83
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
21.35
2/2
8%
6.48
2/X
8%
14.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.35 — our 12% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-5.2pp
27%
Draw
24%
+3.2pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+2.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.8pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Swindon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 25%
+2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / -2%
1.82/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.65
+46% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -19%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
289 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 74%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
22.1 Crosses 17.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3

Notts County vs Swindon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Notts County
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Swindon Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.24 xG 1.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
6 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
520 Passes 295
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
16 Box Touches 24
10 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.08.2024 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-2 HT 1-1 Notts County Notts County İN2
29.03.2024 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-1 HT 1-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
03.10.2023 Notts County Notts County 3-1 HT 3-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
04.05.2019 Swindon Town Swindon Town 3-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
27.10.2018 Notts County Notts County 1-2 HT 1-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
30.12.2017 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2

Notts County 2-0 Swindon Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Notts County
2-0
AWAY Swindon Town
2.58 xG 1.36
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
494 Passes 258
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Notts County vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Notts County beat Swindon Town 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Notts County as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Notts County had 62% of the ball to Swindon Town's 38%, shots finished 17-14, expected goals 2.58 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Town led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Notts County and 1.67 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Swindon Town?

Notts County 2-0 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Notts County 49%, draw 27%, Swindon Town 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Notts County) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Notts County) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İN2 More England - 2nd Division
4 Jan 2025
16:00 Bradford City vs Grimsby Town Analysis →
18:00 Doncaster Rovers vs Port Vale Analysis →
18:00 Colchester vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →
18:00 Tranmere Rovers vs Carlisle United Analysis →
18:00 Milton Keynes Dons vs Salford City Analysis →
18:00 Barrow vs Harrogate Town Analysis →