Bristol City 1-0 Derby County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 4 Jan 2025

Bristol City
1-0 HT 1-0
Derby County
📅04/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2024/2025

Bristol City vs Derby County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.68
Over 2.5
45%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.71
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
4.04
6+ Goals
10%
19.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.42
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.85
X/1
21%
4.02
X/2
9%
8.85
X/X
13%
4.41
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
8%
7.3
2/X
7%
15.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-2.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.0pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bristol City v Derby County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol City EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Derby County EU Bookmakers 24%
+11% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -22%
1.97/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.47
+14% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -15%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
300 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 72%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
26.2 Crosses 17.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Bristol City vs Derby County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Derby County
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.39 xG 1.12
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
286 Passes 435
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
31.08.2024 Derby County Derby County 3-0 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
23.04.2022 Derby County Derby County 1-3 HT 0-2 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
04.12.2021 Bristol City Bristol City 1-0 HT 1-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
30.01.2021 Derby County Derby County 1-0 HT 1-0 Bristol City Bristol City İNCL
21.11.2020 Bristol City Bristol City 1-0 HT 0-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL
12.02.2020 Bristol City Bristol City 3-2 HT 2-0 Derby County Derby County İNCL

Bristol City 1-0 Derby County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol City
1-0
AWAY Derby County
1.36 xG 0.36
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
271 Passes 289
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bristol City vs Derby County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol City edged past Derby County 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bristol City as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Bristol City had 49% of the ball to Derby County's 51%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.36 to 0.36.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bristol City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Bristol City and 1.17 for Derby County.

What was the final score of Bristol City vs Derby County?

Bristol City 1-0 Derby County in the England - Championship on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol City vs Derby County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bristol City win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Bristol City 51%, draw 27%, Derby County 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bristol City), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bristol City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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