Tamworth 4-1 Wealdstone — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 4 Mar 2025

📅04/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.9
Over 2.5
47%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.24
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
3.29
6+ Goals
9%
12.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 30% vs market 24.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.91
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
12%
4.92
X/2
12%
6.96
X/X
10%
4.73
2/1
6%
24.7
2/2
15%
4.98
2/X
7%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
49%
+4.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
51%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-8.0pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tamworth EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Wealdstone EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +18%
2.67/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.60
+76% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
124 · 90% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 120 · 91%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tamworth
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Wealdstone
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
0 Passes 0
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.02.2025 Wealdstone Wealdstone 0-1 HT 0-0 Tamworth Tamworth İBSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tamworth
4-1
AWAY Wealdstone
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 0
3 Passes 0
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tamworth vs Wealdstone
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tamworth cruised past Wealdstone 4-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Tamworth as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Tamworth had 51% of the ball to Wealdstone's 49%, shots finished 16-4.

What was the final score of Tamworth vs Wealdstone?

Tamworth 4-1 Wealdstone in the England - National League on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tamworth vs Wealdstone?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tamworth win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tamworth 42%, draw 26%, Wealdstone 32%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tamworth) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tamworth) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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