Rochdale 1-0 Gateshead — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - National League, 4 Mar 2025

📅04/03/2025 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
37%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.32
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
19%
3.23
6+ Goals
9%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 29% vs market 23.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.18
1/2
11%
30.5
1/X
10%
12.6
X/1
16%
5.21
X/2
10%
6.46
X/X
10%
4.75
2/1
6%
25.0
2/2
16%
4.43
2/X
9%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
42%
-8.2pp
30%
Draw
27%
+2.5pp
37%
Away Win
31%
+5.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.6pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rochdale EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Gateshead EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +26%
1.44/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.02
+0% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +39%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
212 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 88%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rochdale
2W-1D-2L
AWAY Gateshead
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.11.2024 Gateshead Gateshead 0-1 HT 0-0 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
29.03.2024 Gateshead Gateshead 1-0 HT 1-0 Rochdale Rochdale İBSL
12.12.2023 Rochdale Rochdale 1-5 HT 0-1 Gateshead Gateshead FAK
24.10.2023 Rochdale Rochdale 2-2 HT 2-0 Gateshead Gateshead İBSL
10.11.2018 Rochdale Rochdale 2-1 HT 2-0 Gateshead Gateshead FAK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rochdale
1-0
AWAY Gateshead
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 4
3 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 3
0 Passes 0
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Rochdale vs Gateshead
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rochdale squeezed past Gateshead 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 30% / 37%) promised a tight game; Rochdale found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Rochdale had 51% of the ball to Gateshead's 49%, shots finished 8-4.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Rochdale and 1.80 for Gateshead.

What was the final score of Rochdale vs Gateshead?

Rochdale 1-0 Gateshead in the England - National League on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rochdale vs Gateshead?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gateshead win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Rochdale 34%, draw 30%, Gateshead 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Gateshead) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Gateshead) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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