NK Varazdin 1-3 HNK Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - HR Nogometni Cup, 4 Mar 2026

📅04/03/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
42%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
9%
X/2
18%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
42%
Away Win
39%
+3.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.7pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NK Varazdin EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 43%
-6% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 4.42/0.53
-17% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +91%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
306 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NK Varazdin
2W-4D-0L
AWAY HNK Gorica
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.04 xG 1.14
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
365 Passes 328
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.01.2026 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-2 HT 1-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
19.10.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-3 HT 0-2 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
04.08.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
04.04.2025 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 0-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
25.01.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-1 HT 1-1 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin HIR
14.11.2024 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin 1-1 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NK Varazdin
1-3
AWAY HNK Gorica
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HNK Gorica saw off NK Varazdin 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had HNK Gorica as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, NK Varazdin had 51% of the ball to HNK Gorica's 49%, shots finished 15-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, NK Varazdin had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for NK Varazdin and 0.83 for HNK Gorica.

What was the final score of NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?

NK Varazdin 1-3 HNK Gorica in the Croatia - HR Nogometni Cup on 04/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated an HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split NK Varazdin 30%, draw 28%, HNK Gorica 42%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HNK Gorica), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HNK Gorica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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