Rijeka 3-2 Hajduk Split — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - HR Nogometni Cup, 4 Mar 2026

📅04/03/2026 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
23%
3.04
Away
39%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.52
Over 2.5
47%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.03
No
49%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
25%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.0pp
23%
Draw
30%
-6.0pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+5.0pp
53%
Under 2.5
62%
-8.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
38%
+8.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
45%
+5.5pp
49%
BTTS No
55%
-5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rijeka EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Hajduk Split EU Bookmakers 37%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.51/2.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/1.57
+32% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -24%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
265 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 0.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rijeka
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Hajduk Split
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.19 xG 1.22
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
245 Passes 379
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
14 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
22.02.2026 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-0 HT 0-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
22.11.2025 Rijeka Rijeka 5-0 HT 3-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
31.08.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-2 HT 1-1 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
18.05.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 2-1 HT 1-0 Rijeka Rijeka HIR
16.03.2025 Rijeka Rijeka 3-0 HT 2-0 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split HIR
26.02.2025 Hajduk Split Hajduk Split 1-3 HT 1-2 Rijeka Rijeka HIRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rijeka
3-2
AWAY Hajduk Split
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 1
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Rijeka vs Hajduk Split
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rijeka nicked a narrow win over Hajduk Split 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 39%) promised a tight game; Rijeka found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Rijeka had 59% of the ball to Hajduk Split's 41%, shots finished 15-13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rijeka had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Rijeka and 1.00 for Hajduk Split.

What was the final score of Rijeka vs Hajduk Split?

Rijeka 3-2 Hajduk Split in the Croatia - HR Nogometni Cup on 04/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rijeka vs Hajduk Split?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hajduk Split win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Rijeka 38%, draw 23%, Hajduk Split 39%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hajduk Split), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hajduk Split) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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