Al Hilal Riyadh 1-3 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League, 4 Apr 2025

📅04/04/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.61
Over 2.5
54%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.39
No
45%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.88
2-3 Goals
38%
2.06
4-5 Goals
24%
2.47
6+ Goals
14%
5.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-3.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.4pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
35%
+11.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
65%
-11.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
68%
-12.5pp
45%
BTTS No
32%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 33%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +1%
1.78/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.59
+122% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
338 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 82%
36.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
17.9 Crosses 16.9
3.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Al Nassr
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.58 xG 1.07
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
362 Passes 285
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 4
01.11.2024 Al Nassr Al Nassr 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh SUUD
17.08.2024 Al Nassr Al Nassr 1-4 HT 1-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh SUUSK
31.05.2024 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SAKK
17.05.2024 Al Nassr Al Nassr 1-1 HT 1-0 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh SUUD
08.04.2024 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 2-1 HT 0-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr SUUSK
08.02.2024 Al Hilal Riyadh Al Hilal Riyadh 2-0 HT 2-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Hilal Riyadh
1-3
AWAY Al Nassr
1.73 xG 2.14
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
10 Corners 7
322 Passes 208
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 36
25 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Nassr got the better of Al Hilal Riyadh 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Al Hilal Riyadh at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Al Hilal Riyadh had 59% of the ball to Al Nassr's 41%, shots finished 16-18, expected goals 1.73 to 2.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Hilal Riyadh had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Al Hilal Riyadh and 0.83 for Al Nassr.

What was the final score of Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Nassr?

Al Hilal Riyadh 1-3 Al Nassr in the Saudi Arabia Prosefyonel League on 04/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Hilal Riyadh win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Al Hilal Riyadh 43%, draw 24%, Al Nassr 33%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Al Hilal Riyadh) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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