Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 4 Apr 2026

📅04/04/2026 · 🕒05:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
66%
1.43
Draw
18%
4.34
Away
16%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.15
Over 2.5
57%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.85
No
46%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
28%
X/2
3%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
66%
Home Win
66%
+0.0pp
18%
Draw
20%
-1.9pp
16%
Away Win
14%
+1.9pp
43%
Under 2.5
43%
-0.0pp
57%
Over 2.5
57%
+0.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
50%
+4.2pp
46%
BTTS No
50%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 17%
-3% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
2.25/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/2.30
+13% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -24%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
391 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.5 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 4
25.10.2025 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 HT 1-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
12.04.2025 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 4-0 HT 2-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
28.10.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-2 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
27.03.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-0 HT 0-0 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
26.10.2023 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos 3-1 HT 1-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
09.02.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-3 HT 0-1 Tepatitlán de Morelos Tepatitlán de Morelos MEK2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tepatitlán de Morelos
2-0
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
11 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tepatitlán de Morelos beat Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Tepatitlán de Morelos as the likeliest winner at 66%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Tepatitlán de Morelos had 54% of the ball to Alebrijes de Oaxaca's 46%, shots finished 17-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tepatitlán de Morelos had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 0.50 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

What was the final score of Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Tepatitlán de Morelos 2-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Mexico - Primera A on 04/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tepatitlán de Morelos win the most likely single outcome at about 66%, with the full match-result split Tepatitlán de Morelos 66%, draw 18%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 16%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Tepatitlán de Morelos) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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