Paide Linnameeskond 1-1 FC Kuressaare — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.27
Draw
23%
5.28
Away
19%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
Over 2.5
60%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
74%
-16.6pp
23%
Draw
16%
+6.8pp
19%
Away Win
10%
+9.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.7pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paide Linnameeskond EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Kuressaare EU Bookmakers 12%
-11% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +8%
2.57/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/2.43
+10% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -5%
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
372 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 280 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paide Linnameeskond
6W-0D-0L
AWAY FC Kuressaare
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2025 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 1-2 HT 0-0 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
23.11.2024 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 2-1 HT 1-1 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare ESTK
21.09.2024 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 4-3 HT 2-3 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare EST1
04.08.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 0-2 HT 0-2 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
28.06.2024 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare 0-2 HT 0-1 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond EST1
10.04.2024 Paide Linnameeskond Paide Linnameeskond 2-0 HT 0-0 FC Kuressaare FC Kuressaare ESTK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paide Linnameeskond
1-1
AWAY FC Kuressaare
71% Ball Possession 29%
26 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 1
13 Corners 0
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paide Linnameeskond vs FC Kuressaare
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paide Linnameeskond and FC Kuressaare shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Paide Linnameeskond at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Paide Linnameeskond had 71% of the ball to FC Kuressaare's 29%, shots finished 26-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paide Linnameeskond had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Paide Linnameeskond and 0.83 for FC Kuressaare.

What was the final score of Paide Linnameeskond vs FC Kuressaare?

Paide Linnameeskond 1-1 FC Kuressaare in the Estonia - Premium League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paide Linnameeskond vs FC Kuressaare?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paide Linnameeskond win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Paide Linnameeskond 58%, draw 23%, FC Kuressaare 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paide Linnameeskond), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paide Linnameeskond) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
EST1 More Estonia - Premium League
4 May 2025
14:30 Nomme JK Kalju vs FC Levadia Analysis →