CF Os Belenenses 3-2 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
38%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.64
Over 2.5
45%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
39%
-5.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
38%
Away Win
32%
+5.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
57%
-1.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
43%
+1.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.3pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME CF Os Belenenses EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 36%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -10%
1.26/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.71
-1% / +72% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
335 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME CF Os Belenenses
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Fafe
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
13 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2025 Fafe Fafe 0-1 HT 0-0 CF Os Belenenses POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME CF Os Belenenses
3-2
AWAY Fafe
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH CF Os Belenenses vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Os Belenenses edged past Fafe 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 28% / 38% — and on the day CF Os Belenenses made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, CF Os Belenenses had 49% of the ball to Fafe's 51%, shots finished 13-13.

What was the final score of CF Os Belenenses vs Fafe?

CF Os Belenenses 3-2 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for CF Os Belenenses vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split CF Os Belenenses 34%, draw 28%, Fafe 38%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fafe) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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