Sporting Covilha 1-1 Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.92
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
32%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.82
No
53%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
48%
-8.4pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
32%
Away Win
26%
+6.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.0pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldas EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +13%
1.30/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.61
-3% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +41% / -21%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
250 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Covilha
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Caldas
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 2
15.02.2025 Caldas Caldas 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
30.11.2024 Caldas Caldas 1-2 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
18.08.2024 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 1-0 HT 0-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
27.01.2024 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
28.10.2023 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 4-3 HT 0-2 Caldas Caldas POR3
02.10.2022 Caldas Caldas 3-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Covilha
1-1
AWAY Caldas
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 2
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Covilha vs Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Covilha and Caldas shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Sporting Covilha had 61% of the ball to Caldas's 39%, shots finished 12-2.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Covilha had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sporting Covilha and 1.50 for Caldas.

What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs Caldas?

Sporting Covilha 1-1 Caldas in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Covilha win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 40%, draw 28%, Caldas 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sporting Covilha), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Covilha) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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