Lusitania 2-2 Oliveira Hospital — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.84
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
31%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.95
Over 2.5
46%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.68
No
49%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
6%
2/1
11%
2/2
14%
2/X
18%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
32%
+6.0pp
31%
Draw
26%
+4.8pp
31%
Away Win
42%
-10.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+6.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-6.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.4pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Oliveira Hospital EU Bookmakers 46%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -43% / -43%
1.19/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.19
-8% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
283 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania
0W-3D-0L
AWAY Oliveira Hospital
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
16.02.2025 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital 1-1 HT 0-0 Lusitania Lusitania POR3
22.01.2025 Lusitania Lusitania 0-0 HT 0-0 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital POR3
29.09.2024 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital 1-1 HT 0-0 Lusitania Lusitania POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania
2-2
AWAY Oliveira Hospital
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lusitania vs Oliveira Hospital
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania and Oliveira Hospital shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 31% / 31% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Lusitania had 54% of the ball to Oliveira Hospital's 46%, shots finished 8-9.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 0 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Lusitania and 0.67 for Oliveira Hospital.

What was the final score of Lusitania vs Oliveira Hospital?

Lusitania 2-2 Oliveira Hospital in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania vs Oliveira Hospital?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Lusitania 37%, draw 31%, Oliveira Hospital 31%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lusitania), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lusitania) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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