FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 CSKA Moskova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
36%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.82
No
60%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.88
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
18%
4.25
6+ Goals
8%
20.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.88 — our 36% vs market 29.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.45
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.85
X/1
16%
5.1
X/2
8%
6.09
X/X
10%
4.37
2/1
6%
29.0
2/2
22%
4.52
2/X
8%
14.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.5pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.2pp
36%
Away Win
32%
+3.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.7pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
51%
-10.5pp
60%
BTTS No
49%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY CSKA Moskova EU Bookmakers 36%
-2% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -22%
1.21/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.49
-5% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
318 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 75%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
18.2 Crosses 17.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
1W-0D-5L
AWAY CSKA Moskova
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.03 xG 1.70
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
338 Passes 347
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
26 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.10.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
28.09.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 3-0 HT 2-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
27.08.2024 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 0-2 HT 0-0 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUK
20.04.2024 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova 1-2 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
30.07.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 2-3 HT 2-2 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
29.04.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 1-3 HT 0-2 CSKA Moskova CSKA Moskova RUS
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
1-1
AWAY CSKA Moskova
2.25 xG 1.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
18 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
188 Passes 401
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs CSKA Moskova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Akhmat Grozny and CSKA Moskova shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (37% / 27% / 36%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 35% of the ball to CSKA Moskova's 65%, shots finished 18-16, expected goals 2.25 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CSKA Moskova led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 2.17 for CSKA Moskova.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs CSKA Moskova?

FC Akhmat Grozny 1-1 CSKA Moskova in the Russia - Premier League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs CSKA Moskova?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Akhmat Grozny win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 37%, draw 27%, CSKA Moskova 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
RUS More Russia - Premier League
4 May 2025
14:00 Fakel vs Spartak Moskova Analysis →
19:30 Khimki vs Rostov Analysis →
19:30 Zenit St. Petersburg vs Pari Nizhny Novgorod Analysis →