AEK Atina 1-2 Panathinaikos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
25%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.82
No
46%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2.96
2-3 Goals
45%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.64
6+ Goals
10%
15.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.65
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.8
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
4.52
X/2
9%
7.81
X/X
11%
4.68
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
11%
6.12
2/X
8%
14.85
Value flag · X/1 at 4.52 — our 23% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
48%
+2.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
25%
Away Win
25%
-0.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.4pp
54%
BTTS Yes
51%
+2.8pp
46%
BTTS No
49%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AEK Atina EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +20%
1.29/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.00
+5% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 77%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
22.1 Crosses 11.5
2.7 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AEK Atina
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Panathinaikos
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.76 xG 0.92
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
357 Passes 239
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
30 Box Touches 15
24 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.04.2025 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 3-1 HT 1-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
19.01.2025 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 1-0 HT 1-0 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
29.09.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-0 HT 1-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
24.04.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 3-0 HT 2-0 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
03.04.2024 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 2-1 HT 2-1 AEK Atina AEK Atina YUN
14.01.2024 AEK Atina AEK Atina 2-2 HT 1-1 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AEK Atina
1-2
AWAY Panathinaikos
1.54 xG 1.14
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 2
285 Passes 193
76% Pass Accuracy 69%
39 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 5
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AEK Atina vs Panathinaikos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Panathinaikos edged past AEK Atina 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was AEK Atina at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, AEK Atina had 58% of the ball to Panathinaikos's 42%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.54 to 1.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Panathinaikos led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AEK Atina and 1.33 for Panathinaikos.

What was the final score of AEK Atina vs Panathinaikos?

AEK Atina 1-2 Panathinaikos in the Greece - Super League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AEK Atina vs Panathinaikos?

Before kick-off our model rated a AEK Atina win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split AEK Atina 51%, draw 24%, Panathinaikos 25%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AEK Atina) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AEK Atina) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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YUN More Greece - Super League
4 May 2025
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