Olympiakos 4-2 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.25
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.95
Over 2.5
44%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.37
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.26
6+ Goals
10%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.37 — our 28% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.38
1/2
5%
29.5
1/X
7%
13.1
X/1
11%
5.39
X/2
13%
6.22
X/X
16%
4.91
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
17%
4.21
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
41%
-4.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.9pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+1.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.0pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.0pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Olympiakos EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 37%
+4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +6%
1.46/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.01
+33% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / -18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 81%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
19.0 Crosses 12.6
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Olympiakos
4W-0D-2L
AWAY PAOK
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.54 xG 1.05
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
265 Passes 260
72% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.04.2025 PAOK PAOK 2-1 HT 2-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
23.02.2025 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2-1 HT 2-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
10.11.2024 PAOK PAOK 2-3 HT 0-1 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
12.05.2024 PAOK PAOK 2-0 HT 1-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
21.04.2024 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2-1 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
18.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 1-4 HT 1-1 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Olympiakos
4-2
AWAY PAOK
1.34 xG 1.71
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
320 Passes 306
76% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Olympiakos vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Olympiakos saw off PAOK 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; Olympiakos found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Olympiakos had 51% of the ball to PAOK's 49%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.34 to 1.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olympiakos had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Olympiakos and 1.50 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Olympiakos vs PAOK?

Olympiakos 4-2 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Olympiakos vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Olympiakos win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Olympiakos 36%, draw 29%, PAOK 34%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Olympiakos) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Olympiakos) ✗ Under 2.5
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