Olympiakos 2-1 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 23 Feb 2025

📅23/02/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.74
Over 2.5
50%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.96
No
47%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.77
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.77
6+ Goals
10%
17.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.21
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.95
X/1
13%
4.05
X/2
11%
9.5
X/X
13%
4.69
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
9%
8.09
2/X
6%
16.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
54%
-6.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
54%
-3.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
46%
+3.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.2pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Olympiakos EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +11%
1.41/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.24
+2% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / -3%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
417 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 76%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
19.1 Crosses 11.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Olympiakos
4W-0D-2L
AWAY PAOK
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.39 xG 1.38
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
273 Passes 320
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.11.2024 PAOK PAOK 2-3 HT 0-1 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
12.05.2024 PAOK PAOK 2-0 HT 1-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
21.04.2024 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2-1 HT 1-0 PAOK PAOK YUN
18.02.2024 PAOK PAOK 1-4 HT 1-1 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
05.11.2023 Olympiakos Olympiakos 2-4 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
14.05.2023 PAOK PAOK 0-1 HT 0-1 Olympiakos Olympiakos YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Olympiakos
2-1
AWAY PAOK
2.11 xG 0.58
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 3
259 Passes 256
70% Pass Accuracy 70%
29 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Olympiakos vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Olympiakos nicked a narrow win over PAOK 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Olympiakos as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Olympiakos had 51% of the ball to PAOK's 49%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.11 to 0.58 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Olympiakos's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Olympiakos had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Olympiakos and 1.67 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Olympiakos vs PAOK?

Olympiakos 2-1 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 23/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Olympiakos vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated a Olympiakos win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Olympiakos 48%, draw 25%, PAOK 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Olympiakos), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Olympiakos) ✓ BTTS Yes
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