Kerry 1-0 Cork City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 4 May 2026

📅04/05/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
4.65
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
58%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.8
Over 2.5
47%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.95
No
53%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.9
2-3 Goals
40%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.58
6+ Goals
9%
15.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.9 — our 32% vs market 27.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
5%
X/2
21%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
30%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
19%
-0.2pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
57%
Away Win
57%
+0.4pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.3pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.5pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kerry EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Cork City EU Bookmakers 61%
-6% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.08/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/0.77
-7% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +35%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
268 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 385 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kerry
0W-0D-5L
AWAY Cork City
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 2.60
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.04.2026 Cork City Cork City 4-2 HT 0-2 Kerry İR1
13.09.2024 Kerry 1-4 HT 0-2 Cork City Cork City İR1
26.07.2024 Cork City Cork City 2-0 HT 0-0 Kerry İR1
03.05.2024 Kerry 0-1 HT 0-1 Cork City Cork City İR1
16.02.2024 Cork City Cork City 2-0 HT 2-0 Kerry İR1
POST-MATCH Kerry vs Cork City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kerry nicked a narrow win over Cork City 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Cork City at 57% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cork City led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Kerry and 2.60 for Cork City.

What was the final score of Kerry vs Cork City?

Kerry 1-0 Cork City in the Ireland - 1st Division on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kerry vs Cork City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cork City win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Kerry 18%, draw 24%, Cork City 57%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cork City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cork City) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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