Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Chicago Fire v Philadelphia Union — Team-Based Signals
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 1-0
Philadelphia Union
ABD
1-0
HT 0-0
Chicago Fire
ABD
4-1
HT 2-0
Chicago Fire
ABD
1-0
HT 0-0
Philadelphia Union
ABD
1-1
HT 1-1
Chicago Fire
ABD
Chicago Fire 4-3 Philadelphia Union — Actual Match Statistics
Chicago Fire squeezed past Philadelphia Union 4-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Chicago Fire as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Chicago Fire had 47% of the ball to Philadelphia Union's 53%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 3.21 to 1.35 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Chicago Fire's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Philadelphia Union led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Chicago Fire and 1.67 for Philadelphia Union.
What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
Chicago Fire 4-3 Philadelphia Union in the USA - Major League on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union?
Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 41%, draw 24%, Philadelphia Union 35%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chicago Fire), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.