Buxton 1-0 Darlington 1883 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.0
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.61
No
49%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.79
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
2.98
6+ Goals
9%
9.51
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.79 — our 30% vs market 20.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-2.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+2.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.6pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Buxton EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Darlington 1883 EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +11%
1.38/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.12
-8% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / +24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Buxton
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Darlington 1883
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
28.01.2025 Darlington 1883 Darlington 1883 0-1 HT 0-1 Buxton Buxton İCON
16.11.2024 Darlington 1883 Darlington 1883 1-0 HT 0-0 Buxton Buxton İNFAT
20.08.2024 Buxton Buxton 2-0 HT 2-0 Darlington 1883 Darlington 1883 İCON
24.02.2024 Darlington 1883 Darlington 1883 2-1 HT 0-1 Buxton Buxton İCON
02.09.2023 Buxton Buxton 5-0 HT 3-0 Darlington 1883 Darlington 1883 İCON
21.02.2023 Darlington 1883 Darlington 1883 1-1 HT 0-0 Buxton Buxton İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Buxton
1-0
AWAY Darlington 1883
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 0
10 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Buxton vs Darlington 1883
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Buxton squeezed past Darlington 1883 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Buxton as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Buxton had 54% of the ball to Darlington 1883's 46%, shots finished 12-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Buxton had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Buxton and 0.67 for Darlington 1883.

What was the final score of Buxton vs Darlington 1883?

Buxton 1-0 Darlington 1883 in the England - Conference on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Buxton vs Darlington 1883?

Before kick-off our model rated a Buxton win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Buxton 44%, draw 25%, Darlington 1883 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Buxton), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Buxton) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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