Valur vs Stjarnan Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Valur v Stjarnan — Team-Based Signals
Valur vs Stjarnan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Valur 3-2 Stjarnan — Actual Match Statistics
Valur nicked a narrow win over Stjarnan 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Valur as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (61%) came in.
On the day, Valur had 41% of the ball to Stjarnan's 59%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.39 to 2.06 — the balance of chances actually favoured Stjarnan.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stjarnan led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Valur and 1.67 for Stjarnan.
What was the final score of Valur vs Stjarnan?
Valur 3-2 Stjarnan in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Valur vs Stjarnan?
Before kick-off our model rated a Valur win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Valur 50%, draw 21%, Stjarnan 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valur), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.