Panserraikos 2-1 Asteras Tripolis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 4 Oct 2025

📅04/10/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
33%
3.11
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.68
Over 2.5
36%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.67
2-3 Goals
46%
1.72
4-5 Goals
14%
3.95
6+ Goals
7%
18.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 33% vs market 30.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.0
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
8%
13.1
X/1
14%
5.72
X/2
11%
5.63
X/X
19%
4.11
2/1
9%
32.0
2/2
14%
3.9
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-1.1pp
33%
Draw
29%
+4.9pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
56%
+8.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
44%
-8.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Panserraikos EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Asteras Tripolis EU Bookmakers 39%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +18%
1.61/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.06
+42% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +40%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
269 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 78%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
19.9 Crosses 15.5
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Panserraikos
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.54 xG 0.88
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
277 Passes 350
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
09.03.2025 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 1-2 HT 0-0 Panserraikos Panserraikos YUN
01.12.2024 Panserraikos Panserraikos 2-1 HT 1-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
30.03.2024 Panserraikos Panserraikos 2-0 HT 0-0 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
03.03.2024 Panserraikos Panserraikos 2-1 HT 1-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
10.01.2024 Panserraikos Panserraikos 1-1 HT 0-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUK
05.12.2023 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 0-2 HT 0-1 Panserraikos Panserraikos YUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Panserraikos
2-1
AWAY Asteras Tripolis
0.67 xG 0.78
53% Ball Possession 47%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
289 Passes 231
79% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 26
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Panserraikos nicked a narrow win over Asteras Tripolis 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 33% / 32%) promised a tight game; Panserraikos found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Panserraikos had 53% of the ball to Asteras Tripolis's 47%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 0.67 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Panserraikos had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Panserraikos and 0.67 for Asteras Tripolis.

What was the final score of Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis?

Panserraikos 2-1 Asteras Tripolis in the Greece - Super League on 04/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Panserraikos win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Panserraikos 35%, draw 33%, Asteras Tripolis 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Panserraikos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Panserraikos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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