Genk 1-3 Anderlecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Cup, 4 Dec 2025

📅04/12/2025 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
31%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.97
Over 2.5
41%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.57
2-3 Goals
46%
1.79
4-5 Goals
16%
3.15
6+ Goals
8%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 30% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
41%
-1.6pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.4pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.0pp
59%
Under 2.5
47%
+12.0pp
41%
Over 2.5
53%
-12.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.3pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Anderlecht EU Bookmakers 37%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
2.37/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.51
-15% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
381 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 357 · 81%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.1
20.0 Crosses 16.6
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Anderlecht
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.91 xG 0.98
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
452 Passes 351
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 24
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2025 Anderlecht Anderlecht 1-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
25.05.2025 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 1-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
06.04.2025 Anderlecht Anderlecht 1-2 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
22.12.2024 Genk Genk 2-0 HT 1-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
17.09.2024 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0-2 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
11.05.2024 Anderlecht Anderlecht 2-1 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
1-3
AWAY Anderlecht
55% Ball Possession 45%
21 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Genk vs Anderlecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Anderlecht beat Genk 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (39% / 30% / 31%) promised a tight game; Anderlecht found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Genk had 55% of the ball to Anderlecht's 45%, shots finished 21-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Genk and 0.83 for Anderlecht.

What was the final score of Genk vs Anderlecht?

Genk 1-3 Anderlecht in the Belgium - Cup on 04/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Anderlecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genk win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Genk 39%, draw 30%, Anderlecht 31%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Genk), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genk) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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