Motherwell 2-0 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 5 Jan 2025

📅05/01/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.16
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.8
6+ Goals
9%
16.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 27% vs market 26.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.92
1/2
9%
30.0
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
9%
5.72
X/2
13%
5.55
X/X
11%
4.37
2/1
9%
31.0
2/2
16%
3.76
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
-0.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motherwell EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 40%
+1% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -4%
1.32/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.53
+4% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -7%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
241 · 68% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 74%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
22.0 Crosses 19.0
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motherwell
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Aberdeen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.38 xG 1.80
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
254 Passes 360
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 27
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
14.09.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-1 HT 1-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
27.04.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 1-0 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
16.03.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 0-1 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
14.02.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-3 HT 2-3 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
01.11.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 2-4 HT 0-2 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
04.02.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-1 HT 1-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motherwell
2-0
AWAY Aberdeen
1.36 xG 0.88
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 8
251 Passes 406
71% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Motherwell vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motherwell got the better of Aberdeen 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 37% — and on the day Motherwell made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Motherwell had 40% of the ball to Aberdeen's 60%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.36 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aberdeen led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Motherwell and 2.33 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

Motherwell 2-0 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Premiership on 05/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aberdeen win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Motherwell 36%, draw 27%, Aberdeen 37%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Aberdeen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aberdeen) ✓ Under 2.5
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