Gremio vs Botafogo Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Gremio v Botafogo — Team-Based Signals
Gremio vs Botafogo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-4
HT 2-1
Gremio
BR1
0-2
HT 0-0
Botafogo
BR1
Gremio 5-3 Botafogo — Actual Match Statistics
Gremio saw off Botafogo 5-3. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 8 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 5-3 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Gremio had 43% of the ball to Botafogo's 57%, shots finished 14-9.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Botafogo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Gremio and 1.83 for Botafogo.
What was the final score of Gremio vs Botafogo?
Gremio 5-3 Botafogo in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Gremio vs Botafogo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Gremio 47%, draw 26%, Botafogo 27%. The final score 5-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.