Botafogo 3-2 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 23 Nov 2025

📅23/11/2025 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.66
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.91
Over 2.5
51%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.39
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.39
6+ Goals
12%
12.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 27% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.16
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
6%
14.0
X/1
20%
4.33
X/2
9%
10.2
X/X
10%
5.09
2/1
11%
24.0
2/2
7%
8.21
2/X
6%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
56%
+0.7pp
22%
Draw
25%
-2.9pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.7pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botafogo EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 22%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.56/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.83
+25% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -10%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
397 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 75%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
21.5 Crosses 12.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botafogo
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Gremio
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.26 xG 1.69
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
391 Passes 319
85% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.09.2025 Gremio Gremio 1-1 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
29.09.2024 Botafogo Botafogo 0-0 HT 0-0 Gremio Gremio BR1
17.06.2024 Gremio Gremio 1-2 HT 1-1 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
10.11.2023 Botafogo Botafogo 3-4 HT 2-1 Gremio Gremio BR1
10.07.2023 Gremio Gremio 0-2 HT 0-0 Botafogo Botafogo BR1
09.02.2021 Botafogo Botafogo 2-5 HT 0-2 Gremio Gremio BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botafogo
3-2
AWAY Gremio
2.19 xG 1.65
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 1
377 Passes 494
86% Pass Accuracy 90%
27 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Botafogo vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botafogo nicked a narrow win over Gremio 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Botafogo as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Botafogo had 45% of the ball to Gremio's 55%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.19 to 1.65.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Botafogo and 1.83 for Gremio.

What was the final score of Botafogo vs Gremio?

Botafogo 3-2 Gremio in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botafogo vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botafogo win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Botafogo 57%, draw 22%, Gremio 21%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Botafogo), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Botafogo) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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