Bahia vs Vasco da Gama Prediction — Model Probabilities
Bahia v Vasco da Gama — Team-Based Signals
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Bahia 1-0 Vasco da Gama — Actual Match Statistics
Bahia shaded a tight game against Vasco da Gama 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
The way our numbers pointed is the way it went: our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 52% and both teams to score at 54%.
Under the surface, possession split 55% to 45% in Bahia's favour, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.74 to 0.40 — on chances created, Bahia won this by more than the scoreboard admits.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Scoring in those meetings ran 1.50 a game for Bahia against 1.50 for Vasco da Gama.
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama Result & Final Score
Bahia 1 - 0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Bahia 59%, draw 23%, Vasco da Gama 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.