Bahia vs Vasco da Gama Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Bahia v Vasco da Gama — Team-Based Signals
Bahia vs Vasco da Gama Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Vasco da Gama
BR1
0-1
HT 0-1
Bahia
BR1
2-1
HT 2-1
Vasco da Gama
BR2
Bahia 1-0 Vasco da Gama — Actual Match Statistics
Bahia squeezed past Vasco da Gama 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bahia as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Bahia had 55% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 45%, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 2.74 to 0.40 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bahia's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bahia had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Bahia and 1.50 for Vasco da Gama.
What was the final score of Bahia vs Vasco da Gama?
Bahia 1-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Serie A on 23/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Bahia vs Vasco da Gama?
Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Bahia 57%, draw 21%, Vasco da Gama 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bahia) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.