Palmeiras 5-1 Vitoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 5 Feb 2026

📅05/02/2026 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.37
Draw
17%
4.49
Away
15%
6.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.0
Over 2.5
59%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.09
No
49%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
25%
3.25
6+ Goals
13%
11.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1.62
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
20.35
X/1
15%
3.72
X/2
3%
16.6
X/X
7%
6.57
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.0
2/2
8%
15.1
2/X
4%
24.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 8% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
69%
-1.0pp
17%
Draw
19%
-2.2pp
15%
Away Win
12%
+3.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
46%
-5.0pp
59%
Over 2.5
54%
+5.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.8pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria EU Bookmakers 15%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -2%
1.93/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.85/1.63
+3% / +25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -11%
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
426 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 76%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
25.6 Crosses 16.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Palmeiras
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Vitoria
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.35 xG 0.94
58% Ball Possession 42%
20 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
389 Passes 259
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
28 Box Touches 15
26 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
20.11.2025 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
04.08.2025 Vitoria Vitoria 2-2 HT 1-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
28.07.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-2 HT 0-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
15.04.2024 Vitoria Vitoria 0-1 HT 0-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
02.12.2018 Palmeiras Palmeiras 3-2 HT 1-0 Vitoria Vitoria BR1
19.08.2018 Vitoria Vitoria 0-3 HT 0-2 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Palmeiras
5-1
AWAY Vitoria
2.38 xG 0.94
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 Passes 227
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
33 Box Touches 11
18 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Palmeiras vs Vitoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras ran out comfortable winners over Vitoria 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Palmeiras as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Palmeiras had 60% of the ball to Vitoria's 40%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 2.38 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Palmeiras had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Palmeiras and 1.00 for Vitoria.

What was the final score of Palmeiras vs Vitoria?

Palmeiras 5-1 Vitoria in the Brazil - Serie A on 05/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Palmeiras win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split Palmeiras 68%, draw 17%, Vitoria 15%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Palmeiras), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Palmeiras) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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