Sogndal 3-4 Aalesund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Norway - 1st Division, 5 Apr 2025

📅05/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.99
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
46%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.91
Over 2.5
46%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.35
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.28
6+ Goals
9%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 30% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
10%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
30%
-2.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+1.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.0pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sogndal EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Aalesund EU Bookmakers 48%
-9% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +9%
1.22/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/0.98
-16% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +43%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
248 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sogndal
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Aalesund
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2024 Sogndal Sogndal 0-1 HT 0-0 Aalesund Aalesund NOR1
16.05.2024 Aalesund Aalesund 0-2 HT 0-2 Sogndal Sogndal NOR1
23.02.2024 Sogndal Sogndal 2-3 Aalesund Aalesund HAZ
17.10.2021 Aalesund Aalesund 3-0 HT 2-0 Sogndal Sogndal NOR1
18.06.2021 Sogndal Sogndal 2-0 HT 1-0 Aalesund Aalesund NOR1
17.08.2019 Sogndal Sogndal 2-3 HT 1-0 Aalesund Aalesund NOR1
POST-MATCH Sogndal vs Aalesund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aalesund squeezed past Sogndal 4-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aalesund as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aalesund led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Sogndal and 1.67 for Aalesund.

What was the final score of Sogndal vs Aalesund?

Sogndal 3-4 Aalesund in the Norway - 1st Division on 05/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sogndal vs Aalesund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aalesund win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Sogndal 27%, draw 27%, Aalesund 45%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aalesund) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Aalesund) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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