Kenya 1-3 Gambiya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 5 Sep 2025

📅05/09/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
35%
2.94
Away
24%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.48
Over 2.5
34%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.13
No
57%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.08
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
16%
5.23
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
7%
X/X
23%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.0pp
35%
Draw
30%
+4.1pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-2.2pp
66%
Under 2.5
64%
+2.4pp
34%
Over 2.5
36%
-2.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
43%
-0.2pp
57%
BTTS No
57%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kenya EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Gambiya EU Bookmakers 30%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -41% / -41%
1.01/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/2.00
-30% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -35%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
306 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kenya
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Gambiya
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
1 Passes 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
20.03.2025 Gambiya Gambiya 3-3 HT 0-0 Kenya Kenya DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kenya
1-3
AWAY Gambiya
53% Ball Possession 47%
20 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 8
12 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Kenya vs Gambiya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gambiya saw off Kenya 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3.

Our pre-match lean was Kenya at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Kenya had 53% of the ball to Gambiya's 47%, shots finished 20-9.

What was the final score of Kenya vs Gambiya?

Kenya 1-3 Gambiya in the World Cup Qualifiers on 05/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kenya vs Gambiya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kenya win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Kenya 41%, draw 35%, Gambiya 24%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Kenya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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