Uganda 4-0 Mozambik — Result, Statistics & Match Review — World Cup Qualifiers, 5 Sep 2025

📅05/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
32%
3.04
Away
25%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.45
Over 2.5
32%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.29
No
62%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
45%
1.99
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
12%
5.65
6+ Goals
5%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 1.99 — our 45% vs market 41.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
20%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
49%
-5.6pp
32%
Draw
30%
+1.9pp
25%
Away Win
22%
+3.7pp
68%
Under 2.5
65%
+3.0pp
32%
Over 2.5
35%
-2.9pp
38%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.6pp
62%
BTTS No
60%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uganda EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Mozambik EU Bookmakers 25%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +54% / +54%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/0.91
-31% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +100% / +54%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
393 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 248 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uganda
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Mozambik
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
1 Passes 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
20.03.2025 Mozambik Mozambik 3-1 HT 3-1 Uganda Uganda DKE
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uganda
4-0
AWAY Mozambik
53% Ball Possession 47%
22 Total Shots 3
9 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 0
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Uganda vs Mozambik
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uganda cruised past Mozambik 4-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Uganda as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (62%) landed while under 2.5 goals (68%) missed.

On the day, Uganda had 53% of the ball to Mozambik's 47%, shots finished 22-3.

What was the final score of Uganda vs Mozambik?

Uganda 4-0 Mozambik in the World Cup Qualifiers on 05/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uganda vs Mozambik?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uganda win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Uganda 43%, draw 32%, Mozambik 25%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uganda), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Uganda) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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