Guangzhou Evergrande 1-1 Guangxi Baoyun — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.66
Draw
28%
3.64
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.64
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
20%
3.32
6+ Goals
9%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 30% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
56%
-9.7pp
28%
Draw
24%
+4.1pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.6pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Guangxi Baoyun EU Bookmakers 23%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.18/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.17/1.04
-10% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -76% / +105%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
352 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 74%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.1
22.3 Crosses 10.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 4.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Guangxi Baoyun
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.13 xG 0.98
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
248 Passes 192
73% Pass Accuracy 69%
14 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.05.2024 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun 3-4 HT 1-1 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande ÇİN2
26.08.2023 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun 1-0 HT 0-0 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande ÇİN2
14.05.2023 Guangzhou Evergrande Guangzhou Evergrande 1-2 HT 0-0 Guangxi Baoyun Guangxi Baoyun ÇİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guangzhou Evergrande
1-1
AWAY Guangxi Baoyun
1.69 xG 0.47
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
327 Passes 175
78% Pass Accuracy 65%
29 Box Touches 6
15 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Guangzhou Evergrande vs Guangxi Baoyun
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guangzhou Evergrande and Guangxi Baoyun shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Guangzhou Evergrande at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Guangzhou Evergrande had 61% of the ball to Guangxi Baoyun's 39%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 1.69 to 0.47.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Guangxi Baoyun led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Guangzhou Evergrande and 2.00 for Guangxi Baoyun.

What was the final score of Guangzhou Evergrande vs Guangxi Baoyun?

Guangzhou Evergrande 1-1 Guangxi Baoyun in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - 1st Division on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guangzhou Evergrande vs Guangxi Baoyun?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guangzhou Evergrande win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Guangzhou Evergrande 46%, draw 28%, Guangxi Baoyun 26%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Guangzhou Evergrande), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Guangzhou Evergrande) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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