Derry City 1-0 Sligo Rovers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - Premier League, 5 Oct 2025

📅05/10/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.53
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
18%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
26%
3.29
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
21%
3.28
6+ Goals
10%
12.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 26% vs market 23.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.95
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
4%
15.8
X/1
22%
3.99
X/2
6%
11.3
X/X
12%
5.51
2/1
10%
23.1
2/2
8%
9.47
2/X
5%
17.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
61%
-0.1pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.7pp
18%
Away Win
16%
+1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.8pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derry City EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Sligo Rovers EU Bookmakers 20%
-5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
1.57/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.73
+18% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +49% / +5%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
322 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 68%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
22.7 Crosses 15.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Derry City
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Sligo Rovers
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.48 xG 0.88
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
317 Passes 270
73% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.07.2025 Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers 2-0 HT 2-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
22.04.2025 Derry City Derry City 3-0 HT 2-0 Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers İRL
15.03.2025 Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers 0-1 HT 0-1 Derry City Derry City İRL
14.10.2024 Derry City Derry City 1-1 HT 0-1 Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers İRL
04.07.2024 Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers 2-1 HT 0-0 Derry City Derry City İRL
24.05.2024 Derry City Derry City 2-2 HT 0-1 Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers İRL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Derry City
1-0
AWAY Sligo Rovers
2.32 xG 0.16
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
433 Passes 305
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
40 Box Touches 16
24 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Derry City vs Sligo Rovers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Derry City edged past Sligo Rovers 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Derry City as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Derry City had 56% of the ball to Sligo Rovers's 44%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 2.32 to 0.16 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Derry City's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Derry City and 1.17 for Sligo Rovers.

What was the final score of Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?

Derry City 1-0 Sligo Rovers in the Ireland - Premier League on 05/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Derry City win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Derry City 61%, draw 21%, Sligo Rovers 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Derry City), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Derry City) ✓ BTTS No
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