Pau vs Bastia Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Pau v Bastia — Team-Based Signals
Pau vs Bastia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-4
HT 0-1
Pau
FR2
2-6
HT 1-2
Bastia
FR2
Pau 2-2 Bastia — Actual Match Statistics
Pau and Bastia shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Pau at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Pau had 44% of the ball to Bastia's 56%, shots finished 7-16, expected goals 0.63 to 1.24.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bastia led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Pau and 2.00 for Bastia.
What was the final score of Pau vs Bastia?
Pau 2-2 Bastia in the France - Ligue 2 on 06/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Pau vs Bastia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Pau win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Pau 43%, draw 24%, Bastia 32%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.