Heidenheim 2-1 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 6 Dec 2025

📅06/12/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.04
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
51%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.71
Over 2.5
51%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.95
No
44%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.8
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
4.02
6+ Goals
9%
18.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
7.56
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
26.0
1/X
3%
16.25
X/1
7%
8.99
X/2
23%
4.21
X/X
20%
4.57
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
20%
2.38
2/X
5%
14.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 26.0 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
22%
-0.9pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
51%
Away Win
53%
-1.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
55%
-5.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
45%
+5.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.8pp
44%
BTTS No
53%
-8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 56%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
0.82/1.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/0.92
-51% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +150%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
334 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 81%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
17.6 Crosses 21.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Freiburg
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.94 xG 1.44
42% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
288 Passes 418
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.02.2025 Freiburg Freiburg 1-0 HT 1-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
21.09.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 0-3 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
11.05.2024 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-1 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
20.12.2023 Heidenheim Heidenheim 3-2 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
08.05.2016 Freiburg Freiburg 2-0 HT 0-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL2
27.11.2015 Heidenheim Heidenheim 1-2 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
2-1
AWAY Freiburg
2.14 xG 1.00
39% Ball Possession 61%
16 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 6
206 Passes 369
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 30
21 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim squeezed past Freiburg 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Freiburg at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Heidenheim had 39% of the ball to Freiburg's 61%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 2.14 to 1.00.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Freiburg led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Heidenheim and 1.83 for Freiburg.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Freiburg?

Heidenheim 2-1 Freiburg in the Germany - Bundesliga on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 21%, draw 28%, Freiburg 51%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Freiburg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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