NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Heracles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 7 Feb 2026

📅07/02/2026 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
68%
1.43
Draw
20%
4.34
Away
12%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.29
Over 2.5
61%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.76
No
38%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
4.61
2-3 Goals
38%
1.92
4-5 Goals
28%
2.8
6+ Goals
16%
7.66
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.71
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
7%
17.2
X/1
19%
4.04
X/2
4%
14.1
X/X
8%
7.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
20%
20.65
2/2
4%
11.25
2/X
5%
19.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.65 — our 20% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
68%
Home Win
66%
+2.3pp
20%
Draw
20%
+0.3pp
12%
Away Win
15%
-2.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
40%
-1.2pp
61%
Over 2.5
60%
+1.2pp
62%
BTTS Yes
53%
+8.7pp
38%
BTTS No
47%
-8.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Heracles EU Bookmakers 18%
-4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +0%
2.01/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/2.08
+19% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
422 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 77%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.1
23.2 Crosses 16.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Heracles
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.97 xG 1.29
59% Ball Possession 41%
20 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
437 Passes 294
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
32 Box Touches 24
27 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.08.2025 Heracles Heracles 1-4 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
18.05.2025 Heracles Heracles 1-2 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
18.12.2024 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOK
21.09.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-2 HT 1-2 Heracles Heracles HOL
03.02.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-1 HT 0-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
18.08.2023 Heracles Heracles 2-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
4-1
AWAY Heracles
2.49 xG 1.53
68% Ball Possession 32%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 6
431 Passes 159
87% Pass Accuracy 69%
31 Box Touches 15
21 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen ran out comfortable winners over Heracles 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 68%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 68% of the ball to Heracles's 32%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.49 to 1.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.33 for Heracles.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?

NEC Nijmegen 4-1 Heracles in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 07/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Heracles?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 68%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 68%, draw 20%, Heracles 12%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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