Heracles 1-2 NEC Nijmegen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 18 May 2025

📅18/05/2025 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.19
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
37%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.1
Over 2.5
51%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.82
4-5 Goals
25%
2.97
6+ Goals
10%
9.24
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.91 — our 25% vs market 19.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.2
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
7%
12.4
X/1
10%
5.5
X/2
11%
6.64
X/X
14%
5.15
2/1
8%
24.2
2/2
19%
4.29
2/X
8%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
42%
-7.4pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
37%
Away Win
32%
+4.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-8.7pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heracles EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 36%
+6% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +0%
1.53/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.53
+4% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +56%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
296 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 79%
26.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
23.1 Crosses 17.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heracles
3W-1D-2L
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.12 xG 1.70
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
343 Passes 421
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.12.2024 Heracles Heracles 1-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOK
21.09.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-2 HT 1-2 Heracles Heracles HOL
03.02.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 3-1 HT 0-1 Heracles Heracles HOL
18.08.2023 Heracles Heracles 2-1 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
29.07.2022 Heracles Heracles 1-3 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HAZ
15.01.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-0 HT 0-0 Heracles Heracles HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heracles
1-2
AWAY NEC Nijmegen
1.37 xG 1.37
52% Ball Possession 48%
20 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 5
321 Passes 286
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
35 Box Touches 16
28 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen squeezed past Heracles 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 37% — and on the day NEC Nijmegen made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Heracles had 52% of the ball to NEC Nijmegen's 48%, shots finished 20-12, expected goals 1.37 to 1.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Heracles had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Heracles and 1.33 for NEC Nijmegen.

What was the final score of Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?

Heracles 1-2 NEC Nijmegen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 18/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heracles vs NEC Nijmegen?

Before kick-off our model rated an NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Heracles 34%, draw 29%, NEC Nijmegen 37%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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