Roma 4-0 Brighton & Hove Albion — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 7 Mar 2024

📅07/03/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.9
Over 2.5
45%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.42
2-3 Goals
43%
1.79
4-5 Goals
19%
3.47
6+ Goals
9%
13.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 29% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.11
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.95
X/1
17%
4.94
X/2
13%
6.39
X/X
11%
4.66
2/1
8%
26.0
2/2
12%
4.47
2/X
8%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+1.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-0.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
49%
+6.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
51%
-6.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.4pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion EU Bookmakers 34%
+22% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+7% / +132% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
417 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 78%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.5 Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
4-0
AWAY Brighton & Hove Albion
2.98 xG 1.03
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
325 Passes 527
83% Pass Accuracy 91%
19 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Roma vs Brighton & Hove Albion
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma cruised past Brighton & Hove Albion 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Roma as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Roma had 40% of the ball to Brighton & Hove Albion's 60%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 2.98 to 1.03.

What was the final score of Roma vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Roma 4-0 Brighton & Hove Albion in the UEFA Europa League on 07/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Brighton & Hove Albion?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Roma 44%, draw 26%, Brighton & Hove Albion 30%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Roma), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Roma) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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