Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Genk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 7 Mar 2026

📅07/03/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.64
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
17%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.82
No
44%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.34
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
24%
3.3
6+ Goals
11%
12.25
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.3 — our 24% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.09
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
14.6
X/1
16%
4.1
X/2
6%
9.92
X/X
12%
5.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
22.65
2/2
7%
8.01
2/X
5%
16.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.65 — our 15% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
57%
+2.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.2pp
17%
Away Win
19%
-2.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.9pp
44%
BTTS No
49%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Genk EU Bookmakers 22%
-4% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -22%
1.80/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.86
-14% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -12%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
373 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
17.9 Crosses 16.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Genk
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.74 xG 1.11
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
246 Passes 420
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
28 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 2
21.09.2025 Genk Genk 1-2 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
03.05.2025 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 1-0 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
20.04.2025 Genk Genk 1-2 HT 0-1 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
15.03.2025 Genk Genk 2-1 HT 0-0 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise BEL
10.11.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 4-0 HT 2-0 Genk Genk BEL
26.05.2024 Union Saint-Gilloise Union Saint-Gilloise 2-0 HT 1-0 Genk Genk BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Union Saint-Gilloise
2-1
AWAY Genk
0.55 xG 1.08
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
308 Passes 448
78% Pass Accuracy 81%
27 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Union Saint-Gilloise squeezed past Genk 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Union Saint-Gilloise as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Union Saint-Gilloise had 42% of the ball to Genk's 58%, shots finished 12-5, expected goals 0.55 to 1.08 — on chances, Genk could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Saint-Gilloise had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Union Saint-Gilloise and 0.67 for Genk.

What was the final score of Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk?

Union Saint-Gilloise 2-1 Genk in the Belgium - Pro League on 07/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Union Saint-Gilloise vs Genk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Union Saint-Gilloise win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Union Saint-Gilloise 60%, draw 23%, Genk 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Union Saint-Gilloise) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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